Opportunity Validation
Apply this before writing code, publishing long-form content, or purchasing domains. The goal: systematically kill 70–80% of ideas early and proceed only with resilient, asymmetrical ones.
Quick Pass Criteria
All must be true (hard gate):
- Demand Score ≥ 55 (or rising into 55 within 30–45 days)
- Competition Score ≤ 60
- Monetization Vector: ≥2 validated channels
- No severe volatility cliff (recent spike collapsing >40%)
- Problem articulation fits: WHO has PAIN achieving OUTCOME because CONSTRAINT
If any fail → refine angle once. Still fail → discard.
Structured Rubric (Score Sheet)
| Dimension | Weight | Question | 0–2 | 3–4 | 5 | Your Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Quality | 20% | Is demand stable & intent-rich? | Sparse / erratic | Volume w/ shallow intent | Stable + depth | |
| Competition Survivability | 20% | Is there room to rank / position? | Locked incumbents | Mixed authority | Open gaps | |
| Monetization Breadth | 20% | Multiple independent revenue paths? | 1 fragile | 1 strong + 1 weak | 2+ strong | |
| Differentiation Vector | 15% | Clear positioning wedge? | None | Emerging | Sharp & defensible | |
| Momentum Sustainability | 10% | Trend durable vs hype? | Declining | Flat / volatile | Upward stable | |
| Expansion Surface | 10% | Logical adjacent subtopics? | Cramped | Some | Rich cluster space | |
| Risk Surface | 5% | Regulatory / platform fragility? | High | Manageable | Low |
Compute: (Σ(weighted scores)) → Normalize to 100.
Recommended threshold: ≥68 proceed, 60–67 = incubate / monitor, <60 discard.
Penalty Triggers
| Condition | Penalty | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Single monetization path & vendor concentration | -6 | Fragility |
| SERP top 8 = entrenched authorities | -8 | Ranking cost high |
| Volatility spike (>2x baseline then drop) | -5 | Hype decay risk |
| Thin adjacent expansion (≤3 viable clusters) | -4 | Ceiling too low |
Apply cumulative penalties after base score.
Strategic Fit Overlay (Optional)
| Fit Area | Question | If Weak | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skill Alignment | Can you produce credible depth? | Outsourcing required | Budget / partner early |
| Motivation Resonance | Does the problem energize you? | Low intrinsic energy | Automate / exit early |
| Time Leverage | Can assets compound? | High ongoing labor | Productize or reject |
Exclude ideas failing ≥2 fit dimensions unless uniquely high upside.
Validation Workflow
Candidate → Quick Pass → Score Rubric → Apply Penalties → Fit Overlay → Decision
Decision outcomes:
- Proceed: Build seed cluster / MVP surface.
- Incubate: Track momentum & vector improvements (set review reminder).
- Discard: Log reason (prevents idea resurrection).
Red Flags (Instant Kills)
| Signal | Why |
|---|---|
| Monetization relies on single affiliate program with shrinking payouts | Revenue fragility |
| 90%+ SERP dominated by 2 mega domains | Barrier too steep |
| Hype spike with 60% post-spike decay | Temporal fad |
| Declining 12‑month momentum with no counter-trend niche | Structural erosion |
Record & Track
Maintain a lightweight validation log (Notion / sheet):
| Date | Niche | Decision | Score | Penalties | Notes | Review Date |
|---|
This prevents circular re-evaluation and reveals pattern biases.
Next
If passing: create initial execution sprint and set up Workflow Automation for monitoring drift.